Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.460387 0.535655 0.616897 0.710811 0.816073 0.930106 1.062669
2025-04-06 0.340020 0.435168 0.545679 0.682424 0.845914 1.033908 1.265145
2025-04-13 0.250579 0.352960 0.480797 0.649630 0.863972 1.124102 1.460433
2025-04-20 0.195189 0.302446 0.446177 0.648090 0.919017 1.264169 1.730458
2025-04-27 0.148606 0.254676 0.407612 0.636230 0.960085 1.392290 2.000757
2025-05-04 0.116151 0.220460 0.382194 0.638893 1.021542 1.554506 2.333272
2025-05-11 0.089829 0.189751 0.356668 0.637881 1.078355 1.717325 2.684064
2025-05-18 0.064202 0.153288 0.315028 0.605732 1.085549 1.811526 2.949551
2025-05-25 0.044182 0.120826 0.273053 0.565776 1.075336 1.879318 3.184125
2025-06-01 0.032526 0.101454 0.250436 0.555116 1.111179 2.021167 3.542642
2025-06-08 0.023537 0.084537 0.228510 0.541818 1.140903 2.156543 3.903568
2025-06-15 0.018609 0.075914 0.222015 0.557230 1.223573 2.386415 4.433139
2025-06-22 0.012476 0.060756 0.197289 0.532905 1.233849 2.502220 4.799025
2025-06-29 0.008653 0.050392 0.180916 0.523185 1.271097 2.669270 5.265748
2025-07-06 0.005736 0.040883 0.163421 0.507218 1.293961 2.813606 5.707058
2025-07-13 0.004166 0.035668 0.156369 0.514814 1.366817 3.056663 6.339206
2025-07-20 0.002849 0.030141 0.146184 0.512397 1.418202 3.264591 6.925400
2025-07-27 0.002032 0.026405 0.140529 0.520937 1.495454 3.529760 7.634945
2025-08-03 0.001399 0.022836 0.133906 0.525415 1.564287 3.784661 8.343607
2025-08-10 0.000797 0.017904 0.119149 0.502310 1.564571 3.901621 8.802295
2025-08-17 0.000404 0.013468 0.103427 0.471488 1.540903 3.966587 9.166101
2025-08-24 0.000232 0.011085 0.095861 0.465162 1.578502 4.164255 9.801134
2025-08-31 0.000123 0.008981 0.088129 0.456015 1.607347 4.345396 10.415020